1.Qhov kawg Backlash ntawm European Port Congestion: Hauv 8 lub lis piam, Suav Ports yuav khiav tawm ntawm cov thawv

Cia peb pib nrog cov lus nug tseem ceeb tshaj plaws: Vim li cas thiaj muaj kev sib cav ntawm European cov chaw nres nkoj ua rau muaj qhov khoob khoob khoob hauv Suav teb?

Txhawm rau muab tso rau hauv cov ntsiab lus yooj yim rau cov neeg sab nraud kev lag luam: Cov thawv ntim khoom zoo li lub thawv xa khoom rau cov neeg xa khoom noj.Tam sim no, tag nrho cov thawv xa khoom tau daig ntawm tus neeg txais kev pab hauv zej zog- nkag tsis tau lossis tawm.Tam sim no, cov tub lag luam uas tau txais kev txiav txim yuav tsis muaj lub thawv ntim khoom noj, txawm tias muaj pes tsawg tus xaj lossis cov neeg caij tsheb. Kev xa khoom tsuas tuaj yeem tshwm sim.

Nyob rau hauv lub ntiaj teb no kev lag luam, Tuam Tshoj yog lub ntiaj teb no tus loj tshaj exporter, thiab Asia yog lub core manufacturing hub.Lub thawv voj voog ib txwm ua raws li no logic:tag nrho cov thawv los ntawm Asia mus rau Tebchaws Europe, cov thawv khoob rov qab los ntawm Tebchaws Europe mus rau Asia.

Raws li cov xwm txheej ib txwm muaj, ib zaug cov thawv ntim khoom thauj khoom hauv Tebchaws Europe, cov khoob khoob tam sim ntawd xa rov qab mus rau Asia rau cov khoom xa tawm tom ntej.

Tab sis niaj hnub no, tag nrho cov ntim no yog gridlocked:

Ib txhia tseem ntab saum hiav txwv, tos berth.

Qee qhov tau raug tshem tawm ntawm cov chaw nres tsheb, tab sis cov vaj tse puv thiab tsis tuaj yeem nqa tau.

Lwm tus tau tuaj tos, tab sis txoj kev tsheb ciav hlau thiab txoj kev muaj teeb meem, tsis tuaj yeem mus txog cov chaw hauv av hauv Tebchaws Europe - cia nyob ib leeg rov qab mus rau cov chaw nres nkoj.

Tag nrho cov saw rau khoob ntim repositioning tau tawg tag.

Raws li keeb kwm kev lag luam cov ntaub ntawv thiab logistics qauv xam, vaj congestion tshwm sim los ntawm xws li mem tes tuaj txog yuav precisely backfire rau Asian exporting lub teb chaws nrog rau Tuam Tshoj nyob rau hauv8-9 lub lis piam.

Hauv lwm lo lus, pib los ntawmnruab nrab - txog - lig Tsib Hlis 2026, cov chaw nres nkoj loj xws li Shanghai, Ningbo, Shenzhen, thiab Qingdao yuav ntsib teeb meem loj ntawm cov thawv ntim khoom.

Tsis txhob tso tseg qhov no ua qhov ceeb toom ceeb toom. Cia peb ua lej: Raws li qhov xwm txheej ib txwm muaj, txoj kev taug kev los ntawm Tebchaws Europe rov qab mus rau Asia yuav siv sijhawm li 30 hnub.Hnub no, txawm li cas los xij, kev sib tsoo ntawm European cov chaw nres nkoj tau txuas ntxiv lub sijhawm tuav cov thawv rau ntau tshaj 14 hnub.Qhov no txhais tau tias tag nrho lub sijhawm rau Asia kom tau txais cov ntim khoob tau ntev mus.tshaj 44 hnub.Lub thawv turnover tus nqi hla tag nrho txoj kev lag luam tau poob los ntawmntau tshaj 20%.

Lo lus twb tau nthuav tawm ntawm cov neeg xa khoom xa mus ceeb toom rau cov neeg xa khoom: Txawm hais tias tus nqi thauj khoom hauv hiav txwv tseem tsis hloov pauv rau tam sim no, ib zaug lub thawv ntim khoom tsis txaus,shipping chaw thiab ntim yuav instantly ua khoom kim heev.

Thaum ntawd, nws yuav tsis muaj teeb meem ntawm seb koj puas tuaj yeem them tus nqi thauj khoom.Nws yuav yog qhov xwm txheej uaskoj muaj nyiaj, tab sis tseem nrhiav tsis tau lub thawv los thauj koj cov khoom.

Ironically, thaum Asia yuav ntsib teeb meem loj ntim khoom tsis txaus nyob rau yav tom ntej,Lub roob ntawm cov thawv ntim khoom nyob rau hauv European terminals, zaum nyob rau hauv lub hnub.

Qhov no paroxysmal spasm ntawm cov saw hlau yog qhov tseem ceeb alub sij hawm foob pob cog hauv ntiaj teb kev lag luam los ntawm geopolitical instability.

2. Ntau tshaj li qhov teeb meem ntawm lub thawv khoob!

Ib qho Kev Sib Tham Sib Tham Av qeeg thoob plaws tag nrho cov khoom siv saw hlau tau pib

Qhov teeb meem kev thauj khoom no tsis yog qhov txwv rau cov kab ntim khoom thiab cov xa khoom xa tuaj.Nws qhov cuam tshuam yog kis thoob plaws tag nrho cov khoom xa khoom thiab thoob plaws txhua qhov kev lag luam.

Thawj tug yuav ris lub brunt yog tusthoob ntiaj teb lub zog thiab tshuaj lom neeg kev lag luam.

Qhov chaw nres nkoj ntawm Rotterdam tsis yog tsuas yog Europe lub thawv loj tshaj plaws xwb tab sis kuj yog nws lub zog loj tshaj plaws thiab chaw tshuaj lom neeg. Nrog rau tam sim no tensions nyob rau hauv Persian Gulf, European refineries thiab tshuaj nroj tsuag yog scrambling rau restock.Tab sis ib tug kaw ntawm lub Strait ntawm Hormuz yuav ua rau ib tug loj uncertainty rau cov roj tankers thiab LNG cov hlab ntsha.

Yog tias cov tsheb thauj khoom tsis tuaj txog raws sijhawm, European cov pa roj av thiab cov nqi roj av yuavrov hais dua qhov kev sib tw skyrocketing pom thaum xyoo 2022 Russia-Ukraine teeb meem.

Chaw nres nkoj ntawm Rotterdam Authority twb tau ceeb toom: Ntau lub tuam txhab tshuaj nyob sab Europe twb nyob rau lub verge ntawm kev kaw vim qeeb peev thiab nce nqi.Qhov no nthwv dej ntawm qhov chaw nres nkoj congestion yog zoo li yuav.cov quav nyab zaum kawg uas rhuav lawv.

Yog tias European chemical nroj tsuag raug kaw,Tuam Tshoj txoj kev tsim khoom lag luam yuav raug kev txom nyem hnyav.

High- cov khoom siv tshuaj lom neeg kawg, yas pellets, thiab semiconductor photoresist raw cov ntaub ntawv siv nyob rau hauv lub tsheb, electronics, thiab tshiab zog industries cia siab rau ntshuam los ntawm cov teb chaws Europe.A muab kev cuam tshuam ntawm cov ntaub ntawv no yuav yuam cov factories raunres lossis txo kev tsim khoom.

Qhov thib ob, cov kab xa khoom 'cov lus teb ua haujlwm yuav ua rau cov khoom tsis zoo rau cov neeg xa khoom.

Lub Gemini Alliance tau tsim tshiab los ntawm Maersk thiab Hapag-Lloyd tau cog lus tseg rau90% ntawm - sij hawm tuaj txog.Tab sis tom qab Hormuz ntsoog, lub hom phiaj no tau dhau los ua neeg tso dag.

Txhawm rau tiv thaiv kev ncaj ncees ntawm lub sijhawm, cov neeg nqa khoom tsuas yog kev daws teeb meemBlank Sailings-qhov peb feem ntau xa mus rau qhov chaw nres nkoj hla, tshem tawm kev caij nkoj, thiab lub thawv dov.

Qhov no txhais li cas?Yog qhov chaw nres nkoj ntawm Hamburg muaj neeg coob dhau lawm, cov neeg nqa khoom tsuas tuaj yeem hla kev hu, tshem cov khoom thauj hauv Rotterdam lossis Antwerp es tsis txhob, thiab cia cov neeg xa khoom tuaj yeem npaj hla - ciam teb tuaj tos lawv tus kheej.

Cov neeg nqa khoom khaws cia lawv cov sijhawm teem sijhawm, tab sis cov neeg xa khoom tseem tshuav nrog kev ntxhov siab:ntxiv cov nqi thauj mus los hauv av, cov nqi demurrage, thiab kev nplua rau cov neeg siv khoom - txhua tus tau txais los ntawm tus neeg xa khoom.

Txawm tias tsis muaj tseeb: Kev lag luam xa khoom thoob ntiaj teb tam sim no tab tom ntsibovercapacity.Nruab nrab ntawm 2025 thiab 2026, ib tug loj tus naj npawb ntawm cov tshiab tsim ultra- cov nkoj loj tau xa tuaj.

Tab sis qhov nyiaj seem no yogtus qauv.

Nrog rau txoj kab kev thauj khoom tseem ceeb tau thaiv thiab cov chaw nres nkoj gridlocked, ntau lub nkoj tsuas tuaj yeem mus tos ntawm hiav txwv - tig dej hiav txwv mus rau hauv cov tsheb loj heev.

Nws zoo li lub rooj muag khoom loj uas raug kaw: ntxiv tsheb ntxiv tsuas yog coj txhua yam mus rau qhov chaw nres tsheb.

3. Hauv -Kev Txiav Txim Siab:

Lub Era ntawm Pheej Yig, Smooth Globalization yeej ploj mus ib txhis

Qhov av qeeg thauj khoom no yuav zoo li qhov teeb meem sai sai tshwm sim los ntawm Hormuz tsis sib haum. Hauv qhov tseem ceeb, txawm li cas los xij, nws tseem yog lwm qhov xwm txheej tseem ceeb cim.qhov kawg ntawm lub hnub nyoog golden ntawm globalization.

Ob peb lub xyoo dhau los, peb loj hlob cus plaws rau ib tug qauv globalization nyob rau hauv"efficiency ua ntej": txhim kho txoj kev thauj khoom, tus nqi thauj khoom ruaj khov, thiab cov khoom thauj mus los ntawm Tuam Tshoj mus rau European cov khw muag khoom loj hauv tsuas yog 30 hnub ntawm tus nqi qis.

Shipping kab tsuas yog xav tau los xam cov voyages kom raug thiab txo tus nqi tsawg.Shippers tsuas tswj kev tsim khoom thiab booked chaw -thiab cov txiaj ntsig tau yooj yim.

Tab sis tam sim no, txhua yam tau hloov pauv.

Hiav txwv txoj kab tsis yog nruab nrab thoob ntiaj teb dej, tab sisbattlefields ntawm geopolitical kev sib tw.

Ib qho kev cuam tshuam ntawm qhov chaw chokepoints tseem ceeb -Hiav txwv Liab, Suez Canal, lossis Strait of Hormuz - xa cov shockwaves los ntawm kev xa khoom thoob ntiaj teb.

Kev tuav pov hwm tus nqi tseem nyob ruaj khov siab, kev thauj mus los tau hloov pauv tas li, thiab cov chaw nres nkoj tau dhau los ua kev poob siab rau lub ntiaj teb cov khoom lag luam turbulence.

Kev lag luam shipping tab tom muaj kev hloov pauv tseem ceeb:los ntawm "efficiency ua ntej" mus rau "resilience ua ntej".

Mus rau pem hauv ntej, leej twg koom nrog kev lag luam txawv teb chaws lossis logisticsm yuav tsis tsuas yog xam cov nqi thauj khoom, tab sis kujgeopolitical txaus ntshai nqi.

Lawv yuav tsum tsis tsuas yog tsom rau kev ceev ntawm ib txoj kev, tab sis tsimmulti-txuas kev daws teeb meem.

Lawv yuav tsum tsis tsuas yog caum tus nqi qis tshaj plaws, tab sis nrhiavtxaus ntshai- cov neeg koom tes muaj zog.